Ipatasertib Plus Non-Taxane Chemotherapy for Advanced or Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-11-10, after 2020-10-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticventricularbowelbreast cancercardiac
Phrases that lowered it: hcvpatients whoopen labelrelapsedinvestigator -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 165347 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 22885 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, carboplatin, eribulin, gemcitabine, ipatasertib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase Ib/II Trial of coPANlisib in Combination With Trastuzumab in HER2-positive Breast Cancer. (Panther Study) NCT02705859 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Ipatasertib + Pertuzumab +Trastuzumab in Advanced HER2+ PI3KCA-mutant Breast Cancer Patients NCT04253561 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- PIPA: Combination of PI3 Kinase Inhibitors and PAlbociclib NCT02389842 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Afuresertib +Sintilimab+Chemotherapy in Patients With Selected Solid Tumors That Resistance to Prior Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 NCT05383482 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Ipatasertib in Combination With Carboplatin, Carboplatin/Paclitaxel, or Capecitabine/Atezolizumab in Treating Patients With Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT03853707 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.