A Study to Test if Fremanezumab is Effective in Preventing Chronic Migraine in Participants 6 to 17 Years of Age

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronictreatment ofpriorcancermonths
  Phrases that lowered it: participantevaluate theto evaluatescreeninginvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 19.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2253 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test if Fremanezumab is Effective in Preventing Episodic Migraine in Patients 6 to 17 Years of Age NCT04458857 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Fremanezumab in Adults With Migraine NCT03308968 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study With an Open-Label Period on Efficacy and Safety of Fremanezumab in Chinese Adults With Migraine NCT05458011 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of 2 Dose Regimens of TEV-48125 Versus Placebo for the Preventive Treatment of Episodic Migraine NCT02629861 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Comparing Efficacy and Safety of 2 Dose Regimens of Subcutaneous Administration of TEV-48125 Versus Placebo for the Preventive Treatment of Chronic Migraine NCT02621931 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.