Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Signature Stratification for Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pancreaticmetastaticpatients mustadenocarcinomapatient
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoinvestigatorinterfere withclinical studycriteria patients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 436 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 203050 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nab-Pac+Cis+Gem in Pts w Previously Untreated Metastatic PDA NCT01893801 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Exploratory Platform Trial to Evaluate Immunotherapy Combinations With Chemotherapy for the Treatment of Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT04787991 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Folfirinox Followed by Capecitabine and Limited Field Radiation for Localized Pancreatic Head Adenocarcinoma NCT01677988 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• CEND-1 in Combination With Nabpaclitaxel and Gemcitabine in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT03517176 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Study to Evaluate Nab-paclitaxel in Substitution of CPT11 or Oxaliplatin in FOLFIRINOX Schedule as First Line Treatment in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02109341 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.