Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3016859 in Participants With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-11, after 2020-07-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1332 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paincelltype diabetesdiabeticneuropathy
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluateasthmaphysical -
Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1332 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 157 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3857210 in Participants With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain (NP05). NCT05620576 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3556050 in Participants With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain NCT04707157 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- A Study for Treatment of Pain in Patients With Diabetic Neuropathy. NCT00785577 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3526318 in Participants With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain NCT05177094 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- A Study to Learn How Safe BAY2395840 is and How Well it Works in Participants Who Have Diabetic Nerve Pain NCT05219812 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.