Optimization for Regorafenib in HCC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-12-10, after 2021-01-21 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ulnrandomizationstudy drugpatientconcurrent
Phrases that lowered it: hivantiretroviralmgopenadvanced -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7551 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 962 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- regorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Lower or Standard Dose Regorafenib in Treating Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02368886 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Study Comparing Different Dose Approaches of Induction Treatment of Regorafenib in MCRC NCT02835924 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Regorafenib in Bevacizumab Refractory Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT04051606 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Treatment Response With CHOI and RECIST Criteria and CT Texture Analysis in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Treated With Regorafenib NCT02699073 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2 Trial of Regorafenib as A Single Agent in Advanced and Metastatic Biliary Tract Carcinoma/Cholangiocarcinoma Patients Who Have Failed First-line Chemotherapy NCT02053376 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.