Low-dose Tocilizumab Versus Standard of Care in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplanttherapyorganconcurrentcell
  Phrases that lowered it: tocilizumab19trialscreeningmulti
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 350 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 55658 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15707 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tocilizumab to Prevent Clinical Decompensation in Hospitalized, Non-critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonitis NCT04331795 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• COVID-19: Salvage TOcilizumab as a Rescue Measure NCT04577534 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Trial of Tocilizumab for Treatment of Severe COVID-19: ARCHITECTS NCT04412772 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• Tocilizumab for Patients With Cancer and COVID-19 Disease NCT04370834 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate Intravenous Tocilizumab in Participants With Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia NCT04363736 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.