Participatory Evaluation (of) Aging (With) Rapamycin (for) Longevity Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-30, after 2020-01-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsdlcountheartii
Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersmetformindisorderrelevant -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8426 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1700 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sirolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of mTOR Inhibition and Other Metabolism Modulating Interventions on the Elderly NCT02874924 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Everolimus Aging Study NCT05835999 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Exercise and Low-Dose Rapamycin in Older Adults With CAD:Cardiac Rehabilitation And Rapamycin in Elderly (CARE) Trial NCT01649960 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Evaluating Rapamycin Treatment in Alzheimer's Disease Using Positron Emission Tomography NCT06022068 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Effect of a Ghrelin Receptor Agonist on Muscle and Bone NCT04021706 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.