P-glypoprotein Inhibition Effect on the Pharmacokinetics of Two Tacrolimus Formulations: Prolonged and Extended-release

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbraincardiactransplantation18 years
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerseffectinteractiondiabetes
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Comparison of the Effects of Extended Release Tacrolimus (Advagraf®) vs. Immediate Release Tacrolimus (Prograf®) on Kidney Function in Healthy Male Volunteers NCT01681134 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Extended Release Tacrolimus (Advagraf) and Cyclosporine A Microemulsion on Renal Function in Healthy Volunteers NCT00818194 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Drug Interaction Between Colchicine and Calcineurin Inhibitors in Renal Graft Recipients NCT01160276 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Tacrolimus in Healthy Volunteers NCT04725682 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study Evaluating the Efficacy of Tacrolimus Extended Release Tablets to Twice Daily Tacrolimus Dosing Regimen NCT03373227 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.