B244 Topical Spray for the Treatment of Pruritus in Adults With a History of Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celldefinedmajorallergenprior
  Phrases that lowered it: maleweeksperiodtopicalsubjects
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Determine Safety and Efficacy of B244 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT03235024 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of CT327 in Atopic Dermatitis NCT01808157 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Efficacy and Safety of PF-04965842 and Dupilumab in Adult Subjects With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis on Background Topical Therapy NCT03720470 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study of B244 Delivered as a Topical Spray to Assess Safety in Pediatric Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT03775434 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of BTX 1204 in Patients With Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT03824405 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.