ACTIV-3: Therapeutics for Inpatients With COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (59 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-07-14, after 2020-08-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pfagentwomen offailuretherapy
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantsafetyefficacythe study -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 18 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1311 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 18 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 11 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1311 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 86 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2156 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2151 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bamlanivimab, cilgavimab, remdesivir, sotrovimab, tixagevimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PF-07304814 for Inpatients With COVID-19 (An ACTIV-3/TICO Treatment Trial) NCT05780541 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Understand the Effect and Safety of the Study Medicine PF-07817883 in Adults Who Have Symptoms of COVID-19 But Are Not Hospitalized NCT05799495 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Study of Multiple Candidate Agents for the Treatment of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients NCT04590586 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Strategies and Treatments for Respiratory Infections & Viral Emergencies (STRIVE): Shionogi Protease Inhibitor (Ensitrelvir) NCT05605093 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
- Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 2 (ACTT-2) NCT04401579 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.