Cyclophosphamide, Abatacept, and Tacrolimus for GvHD Prevention

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (37 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: women ofeffectiveheartnegativeventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelsinglemaleageat screening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 435 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 276989 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 50625 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• High-Dose Post-Transplant Cyclophosphamide and Bortezomib (CyBor) for the Prevention of Graft-versus-Host Disease Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) NCT03945591 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Post Transplant Cyclophosphamide (Cytoxan) for GvHD Prophylaxis NCT02065154 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Tildrakizumab for Prevention of Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease NCT04112810 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study of Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (GVHD) in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Stem-Cell Transplantation NCT02737306 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Tacrolimus/Methotrexate and Tocilizumab to Prevent Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (AGVD) After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant NCT02206035 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.