Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of HM15211(Efocipegtrutide) in Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-07-15, after 2020-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseasesubjects withstagemriin subjects
Phrases that lowered it: evaluateadultsstudy tomethotrexatebmi -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 106 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 106 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 22 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Multiple Doses of HM15211(Efocipegtrutide) in Obese Subjects With NAFLD NCT03744182 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Study of Efruxifermin in Subjects With Histologically Confirmed Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03976401 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability & Efficacy of MSDC-0602K in Patients With NASH NCT02784444 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study of Efruxifermin in Non-Cirrhotic Subjects With Histologically Confirmed Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT04767529 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study of Efruxifermin in Subjects With Compensated Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) (Symmetry) NCT05039450 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.