Study on the Safety of the Drug Runcaciguat and How Well it Works When Given at the Highest Dose as Tolerated by Individual Patient Whose Kidneys Are Not Working Properly and Suffering at the Same Time From High Blood Sugar and/or High Blood Pressure and a Disease of the Heart and the Blood Vessels.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurebowelcarcinomadisease
  Phrases that lowered it: bloodmmhgparticipantspressureparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 896 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test the Effect of Different Doses of Avenciguat (BI 685509) on Kidney Function in People With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04736628 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Effect of Different Doses of BI 685509 on Kidney Function in People With Diabetic Kidney Disease NCT04750577 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Pharmacodynamic Study of Measured Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes NCT01500798 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Bardoxolone Methyl Evaluation in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes NCT01351675 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Learn How Well the Treatment Combination of Finerenone and Empagliflozin Works and How Safe it is Compared to Each Treatment Alone in Adult Participants With Long-term Kidney Disease (Chronic Kidney Disease) and Type 2 Diabetes NCT05254002 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.