MELD-ATG: Phase II, Dose Ranging, Efficacy Study of Anti-thymocyte Globulin (ATG) Within 6 Weeks of Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-12-16, after 2020-11-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeboactivestagepriorcell
Phrases that lowered it: effectparticipantthe trialtype diabetesinvestigate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 5 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 25 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 201 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 74 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 33.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- rabbit
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- ATG-GCSF in New Onset Type 1 Diabetes NCT02215200 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Reversing Type 1 Diabetes After it is Established NCT01106157 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- STOP-T1D Low-Dose (ATG) NCT04291703 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
- CTLA4-Ig (Abatacept)for Prevention of Abnormal Glucose Tolerance and Diabetes in Relatives At -Risk for Type 1 NCT01773707 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- PolyTreg Immunotherapy in Islet Transplantation NCT03444064 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.