A Trial of the Efficacy and the Safety of RO6889450 (Ralmitaront) vs Placebo in Patients With an Acute Exacerbation of Schizophrenia or Schizoaffective Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dsmschizophreniatreateddisordersuicidal
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantshcvefficacy andscreening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1161 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 99472 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Effects of RO6889450 (Ralmitaront) in Participants With Schizophrenia or Schizoaffective Disorder and Negative Symptoms NCT03669640 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Study of CYR-101 in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT00861796 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of KarXT in Acutely Psychotic Hospitalized Adult Patients With Schizophrenia (EMERGENT-2) NCT04659161 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Long-term Safety and Tolerability of an Investigational Drug in People With Schizophrenia. NCT04115319 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of KarXT in Acutely Psychotic Hospitalized Adult Patients With Schizophrenia (EMERGENT-3) NCT04738123 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.