A Study of ZN-c5 and Abemaciclib in Participants With Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-10-24, after 2020-11-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast canceradvancedher2receptornegative
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsevaluate theto evaluateparticipantsefficacy -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4060 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1773 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 44.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abemaciclib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of ZN-c5 in Subjects With Breast Cancer NCT03560531 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) in Women With HR+, HER2+ Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02675231 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating Abemaciclib + Aromatase Inhibitors in HR+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer Patients (HERMIONE-7) NCT04227327 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- A Study of ZN-c5 in Participants With Breast Cancer NCT04176757 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) In Participants With Previously Treated Breast Cancer That Has Spread NCT02102490 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.