A Phase IIa Clinical Trial on TSG-01 in the Treatment of Chronic Heart Failure in Patients With Coronary Heart Disease.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartventricularfailureleftmyocardial
  Phrases that lowered it: effectevaluate theblood pressureto evaluateefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• QUantum Genomics Incremental Dosing in Heart Failure - QUID-HF NCT02780180 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy of Candesartan on Symptomatic Heart Failure in Treating Diabetic and Hypertensive Patients. NCT00775840 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• The Clinical Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Istaroxime in Treatment of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT02617446 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Qishenyiqi Dripping Pills for Treating Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT04944706 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Pharmacodynamic and Pharmacokinetic Study of BiDil Extended-release Capsules and Commercial BiDil Tablets NCT02522208 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.