A Dose-Ranging Study With Vupanorsen (TRANSLATE-TIMI 70)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mricarcinomapriorheartsquamous cell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsblood pressurepharmacokineticsmmhg
• Sponsor's past trials: 1917 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 160 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Administering Multiple Oral Doses of GSK1292263 Alone and With Atorvastatin NCT01218204 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• STUDY TO EVALUATE THE EFFECT OF PF-06882961 ON SINGLE DOSE ATORVASTATIN, MEDAZOLAM AND ORALCONTRACEPTIVE PHARMACOKINETICS IN HEALTHY ADULT PARTICIPANTS NCT05093205 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of NST-1024 Versus Placebo in Subjects With Hypertriglyceridemia NCT05889156 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Pravafenix Cap to Verify the Superiority Than Atorvastatin NCT02166593 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Drug-Drug Interaction Study Between PF-06882961 and PF-06865571 in Healthy Adult Participants and Overweight Adults or Adults With Obesity Who Are Otherwise Healthy NCT04839393 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.