Mesenchymal Stem Cells for the Treatment of Perianal Fistulizing Crohn's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (39 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-11-16, after 2020-11-19 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercellstherapymarrowstem
Phrases that lowered it: screeningsinglebodysafety ofparticipant -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Pediatric Perianal Fistulizing Crohn's Disease NCT04791878 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
- Mesenchymal Stem Cells for the Treatment of Rectovaginal Fistulas in Participants With Crohn's Disease NCT04519697 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Pediatric MSC-AFP Sub-study for Crohn's Fistula NCT03449069 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Study Evaluating Autologous Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stromal for Crohn's Disease. NCT01659762 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Stem Cell Fistula Plug in Perianal Crohn's Disease NCT01915927 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.