Pembrolizumab and Chemoradiotherapy for the Treatment of Unresectable Gastroesophageal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-08-07, after 2020-09-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertherapystablecellsdisease
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsinfluenzatrialblood -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 910 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 188343 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 910 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 27.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 211 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 6 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 188343 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 29354 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel, fluorouracil, lambrolizumab, oxaliplatin, pembrolizumab, uracil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase II Trial of Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab for Patients With Early Stage Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma NCT04089904 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Phase II Trial of Pembrolizumab With Trastuzumab and Chemotherapy in Advanced HER2 Positive Esophagogastric (EG) Cancer NCT02954536 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab Before Surgery for the Treatment of Mismatch Repair Deficient Locally Advanced Solid Cancers NCT04082572 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab, Bevacizumab, and Cyclophosphamide in Treating Patients With Recurrent Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer NCT02853318 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Refractory Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT02971956 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.