Clinical Trial of Ivermectin Plus Doxycycline for the Treatment of Confirmed Covid-19 Infection
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-09-10, after 2020-06-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: effectivebreastcellinvasivestandard
Phrases that lowered it: pressure19and safetyaminotransferaseefficacy and -
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 40346 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6735 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- doxycycline, ivermectin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Ivermectin in COVID-19 NCT05076253 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Ivermectin and Doxycycline in Combination or IVE Alone in Patients With COVID-19 Infection. NCT04407130 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Ivermectin in Adults With Severe COVID-19. NCT04602507 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
- Combination Therapies to Reduce Carriage of SARS-Cov-2 and Improve Outcome of COVID-19 in Ivory Coast: a Phase Randomized IIb Trial NCT04466241 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Ivermectin Reproposing for Mild Stage COVID-19 Outpatients NCT04784481 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.