Posiphen® Dose-Finding, Biomarker Study in Early Alzheimer's and Parkinson's Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mrisubjects withpdsubjectpain
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsparticipantsevaluate thethe studyprostate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of Posiphen® in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02925650 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Study of Bryostatin in Moderately Severe to Severe Alzheimer's Disease Subjects Not On Memantine NCT03560245 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study of an Investigational Drug to See How it Affects the People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) Compared to an Approved Drug Used to Treat People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) NCT03391882 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of SEP-363856 in Subjects With Parkinson's Disease Psychosis NCT02969369 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Multiple Ascending Dose Study of MEDI1341 in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT04449484 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.