Comparison of Methylprednisolone or Methotrexate in the Maintenance Treatment of Nasal Polyposis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgerytherapystandardhighpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: nasaltopicaland safetyclinical trialefficacy and
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 274521 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 45149 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Mometasone vs Budesonide in CRS With Polyposis NCT03323866 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Effectiveness and Safety of Mometasone Furoate Nasal Spray (MFNS, SCH 032088) for the Treatment of Nasal Polyps (P05604) NCT01386125 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Subcutaneously CM310/Placebo in Patients With Chronic Rhinosinusitis With Nasal Polyposis (CROWNS-1) NCT04805398 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Tezepelumab in Participants With Severe Chronic Rhinosinusitis With Nasal Polyposis NCT04851964 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing the Clinical Equivalence of Two Mometasone Nasal Sprays in the Relief of the Signs and Symptoms of Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis NCT01038427 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.