A Study of RGLS4326 in Patients With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (233 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationeffectivecellleast monthsto assess
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseulnpatientsbloodpressure
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Lenvatinib in Combination With Everolimus in Subjects With Unresectable Advanced or Metastatic Non Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma (nccRCC) Who Have Not Received Any Chemotherapy for Advanced Disease NCT02915783 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• A Medical Research Study Designed to Determine if Venglustat Can be a Future Treatment for ADPKD Patients NCT03523728 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Epetraborole Tablets in Subjects With Degrees of Renal Function NCT05283746 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Repeat Dose Safety and Efficacy Study for Compound to Treat Anemia NCT01047397 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Assessment of the Pharmacokinetics of GSK1278863 and Metabolites in Normal Subjects and Subjects With Renal Impairment NCT01406340 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.