Study in Participants With Early Stage Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) to Evaluate the Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of Remdesivir Administered by Inhalation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (118 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationstagekeyonsetdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantsvaccinechronic obstructiveobstructive pulmonary
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Antiviral Activity of Remdesivir (GS-5734™) in Participants With Moderate Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Compared to Standard of Care Treatment NCT04292730 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Remdesivir (GS-5734™) Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in an Outpatient Setting NCT04501952 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Antiviral Activity of Remdesivir (GS-5734™) in Participants With Severe Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) NCT04292899 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Remdesivir for Severely Ill Inpatients With COVID-19 (An ACTIV-3b/TESICO Treatment Trial) NCT06729593 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Remdesivir in Adults With Severe COVID-19 NCT04257656 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.