A Phase 3 Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Ensifentrine in Patients With COPD
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-07-06, after 2020-09-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ensifentrine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 3 Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Ensifentrine in Patients With COPD NCT04535986 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ensifentrine for 24 Weeks in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT05743075 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Effect of Ensifentrine Treatment on CAT Score NCT06460493 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study of Ensifentrine-Glycopyrrolate (MK-5884A/RPL554) Fixed-dose Combination Dose Ranging in Participants With COPD (MK-5884A-029/RPL554-CO-212) NCT07016412 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Safety of Single Inhaled Doses of Ensifentrine-glycopyrrolate Fixed Dose Combination, Ensifentrine, and Glycopyrrolate in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT07132983 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.