Inpatient Treatment of COVID-19 With Anti-Coronavirus Immunoglobulin (ITAC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: intravenouspatientrandomizationfailuredisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participant19adultplasmaefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 390 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3330 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Outpatient Treatment With Anti-Coronavirus Immunoglobulin NCT04910269 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of High Dose IVIG in Hospitalized Participants With Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) NCT04432324 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of High Dose Intravenous Immune Globulin (IVIG) Plus Standard Medical Treatment (SMT) Versus SMT Alone in Participants in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) With Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) NCT04480424 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Antibody Plasma Research Study in Hospitalized Patients NCT04524507 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies Based IVIG Therapy for COVID-19 Patients NCT04521309 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.