Study of Mesenchymal Stem Cells for the Treatment of Medically Refractory Crohn's Colitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (39 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-11-15, after 2020-11-04 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bowelsurgerytherapyrefractorypatients
Phrases that lowered it: safetyoral20adultcorticosteroids -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 325 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 325 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 62 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- remestemcel l
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Mesenchymal Stem Cells for the Treatment of Medically Refractory Ulcerative Colitis (UC) NCT04543994 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Study of ExoFlo for the Treatment of Medically Refractory Ulcerative Colitis NCT05176366 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for the Treatment of Severe or Refractory Inflammatory and/or Autoimmune Disorders NCT01540292 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
- A Phase I Study Evaluating Autologous Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stromal for Crohn's Disease. NCT01659762 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability Of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease NCT02150551 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.