Perianal Abscess Recurrence and Fistula Formation: Antibiotics Following Incision and Drainage Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-01-22, after 2021-11-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapycellspatientscare
Phrases that lowered it: trialagedthe aimconductedtract -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 233775 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22476 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 178 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 54 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 233775 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 22476 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- amoxicillin, amoxicillin clavulanic acid, ciprofloxacin, clavulanic acid, metronidazole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Surgical Closure vs Anti-TNF in the Treatment of Perianal Fistulas in Crohn's Disease (PISA-II): a Comprehensive Cohort Design NCT06441526 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Ano-perineal Fistulas Resistant to Surgical Treatment with a Gel and Plug of Wharton's Jelly NCT05638139 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Evaluating an rhPDGF-BB-enhanced Collagen Plug for Perianal Fistula Healing NCT06632418 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study of Darvadstrocel for Treating Complex Perianal Fistulas in Children and Teenagers With Crohn's Disease NCT04701411 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
- eXtended Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Intermediate- and High-risk Glands After Pancreatoduodenectomy to Reduce CR-POPF NCT05753735 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.