CRAFT: The NCT-PMO-1602 Phase II Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-12-30, after 2021-10-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: brainmetastasesof studystagemetastatic
Phrases that lowered it: hcvarthritishepatitis virusinvestigaterheumatoid -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 90981 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15590 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 16 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 8 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 90981 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 15590 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alectinib, atezolizumab, cobimetinib, inavolisib, ipatasertib, pertuzumab, trastuzumab, vemurafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- MK-3475 in Combination With Docetaxel vs Docetaxel Alone in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT02574598 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- A Basket Trial of an ERK1/2 Inhibitor (LY3214996) in Combination With Abemaciclib. NCT04534283 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
- Pixatimod (PG545) Plus Nivolumab in PD-1 Relapsed/Refractory Metastatic Melanoma and NSCLC and With Nivolumab and Low-dose Cyclophosphamide in MSS Metastatic Colorectal Carcinoma (mCRC) NCT05061017 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- IO102-IO103 in Combination With Pembrolizumab as First-line Treatment for Patients With Metastatic NSCLC, SCCHN, or mUBC NCT05077709 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Anti-PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody in Advanced, Trastuzumab-resistant, HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT02129556 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.