Neoadjuvant Toripalimab in Combination With Gemcitabine Therapy in Cisplatin Ineligible Local Advanved Bladder Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-04-12, after 2021-01-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: registrationcancertherapysurgicalii
Phrases that lowered it: screeningcell carcinomavisitsinglethe trial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 33851 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 50% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 35 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 33851 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4061 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gemcitabine, toripalimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pembrolizumab With Chemoradiotherapy as Treatment for Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02662062 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Perioperative Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Versus Perioperative Placebo Plus Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Cisplatin-eligible Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) (MK-3475-866/KEYNOTE-866) NCT03924856 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, Cisplatin, and Temsirolimus as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced and/or Metastatic Transitional Cell Cancer of the Urothelium NCT01090466 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab for Muscle-invasive Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma NCT02736266 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Neo-Adjuvant Bladder Urothelial Carcinoma COmbination-immunotherapy NCT03387761 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.