Efficacy of CONvalescent Plasma in Patients With COVID-19 Treated With Mechanical Ventilation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventilationmechanicalacutecarepneumonia
  Phrases that lowered it: trialthe efficacyeffectplasmaefficacy of
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 48 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Convalescent Plasma as Adjunctive Therapy for Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 NCT04567173 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Early COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma in Patients Admitted for COVID-19 Infection NCT04375098 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma for the Treatment of Hospitalized Patients With Pneumonia Caused by SARS-CoV-2. NCT04397757 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Convalescent Plasma Therapy vs. SOC for the Treatment of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients NCT04345523 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Transfusion of Convalescent Plasma for the Early Treatment of Patients With COVID-19 NCT04393727 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.