COVID-19 Prophylaxis South Africa (COVER HCW)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagevaccinationchronic kidneykidney diseaserisk of
  Phrases that lowered it: exposure19drugsscreeninglabel
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 52.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Nitazoxanide (NTZ) for Pre- and Post Exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 and Other Viral Respiratory Illnesses (VRI) in Healthcare Workers and Others at Increased Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection NCT04359680 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Four Different Experimental Drug Regimens to Standard of Care for the Treatment of Symptomatic Outpatients With COVID-19 NCT04532931 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Live Recombinant Newcastle Disease Virus-vectored COVID-19 Vaccine Phase 1 Study. NCT05181709 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of S-217622 in Prevention of Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection NCT05897541 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Open Multicentre Study of the Safety and Efficacy Against COVID-19 of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in the Adult Population NCT05601167 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.