Apremilast in Patients With Moderate to Severe Palmoplantar Pustulosis (PPP) (APLANTUS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-08-29, after 2018-11-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: screeningchronickidney diseaseprior toweek
Phrases that lowered it: patientaccordingmethotrexatepartnertherapy -
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 62840 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 20061 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 19.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apremilast
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 3B, Open-label, Single-arm Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast, in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis That is Not Adequately Controlled by Topical Therapy NCT03930186 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Subjects With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque-Type Psoriasis (Core Study) NCT00773734 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Oral MP1032 in Psoriasis Patients NCT02908347 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Alitretinoin Treatment in Patients With Pustular Form of Psoriasis NCT01245140 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness of Oral Apremilast (CC-10004) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis. NCT01232283 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.