Safety and Efficacy of IBE-814 Intravitreal (IVT) Implant - a Sustained, Low Dose Dexamethasone Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyerandomizationocularpostmacular
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalthis trialareablood pressuremmhg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• HORNBILL: A Study to Test Different Doses of BI 764524 in Patients Who Have Had Laser Treatment for a Type of Diabetic Eye Disease Called Diabetic Retinopathy With Diabetic Macular Ischemia NCT04424290 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn How Well a Higher Amount of Aflibercept Given as an Injection Into the Eye Works and How Safe it is in People With Reduced Vision Due to Swelling in the Macula, Central Part of the Retina Caused by a Blocked Vein in the Retina (Macula Edema Secondary to Retinal Vein Occlusion) NCT05850520 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of HLX04-O with Ranibizumab in Subjects with WAMD NCT04740671 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Phase II Combination Steroid and Anti-VEGF for Persistent DME NCT01945866 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Efficacy & Safety Trial of Intravitreal Injections Combined With PRP for CSME Secondary to Diabetes Mellitus (DAVE) NCT01552408 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.