A Study of Sotatercept for the Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (MK-7962-003/A011-11)(STELLAR)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycoronarypriorpainleft ventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: visitand safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe screening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 31.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Sotatercept in Newly Diagnosed Intermediate- and High-Risk PAH Participants (MK-7962-005/A011-13) NCT04811092 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Sotatercept in Participants With PAH WHO FC III or FC IV at High Risk of Mortality (MK-7962-006/ZENITH) NCT04896008 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• A Study of Sotatercept for the Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) NCT03496207 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Seralutinib in Adult Subjects With PAH (PROSERA) NCT05934526 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Once Weekly SC Pemziviptadil (PB1046) in Subjects With Symptomatic PAH NCT03556020 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.