Study of a Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Adults Aged 50 to 84 Years.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-01-20, after 2020-10-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapychemotherapyleast weekscancerinvolvement
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationinfluenzahealthyreceipt -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 978 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 84 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 84 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 978 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 68 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2459 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 559 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, pneumococcal vaccine polyvalent, pneumococcal valent conjugate vaccine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Tolerability Study for the Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine V114 Versus Prevnar™ (V114-001) NCT01215175 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Study to Learn About a Type of Pneumococcal Vaccine With a New Ingredient (PF-07872411) Intended to Enhance the Effects of the Vaccine Which is Given to Adults NCT05831124 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Study of Investigational Pneumococcal Vaccine in Healthy Adults, Toddlers and Infants NCT01446926 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Lot-to-Lot Consistency of V114 in Healthy Adults (V114-020) NCT03950856 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Phase IIb, Open-Label, Dose Ranging Study of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Adults 55 Through 74 Years of Age Previously Vaccinated With 23-Valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine NCT01654263 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.