A Study Looking at the Effectiveness, Immune Response, and Safety of a COVID-19 Vaccine in Adults in the United Kingdom
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-03-29, after 2020-09-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priordefineddiagnosisplacebosclerosis
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationparticipantsparticipantand safety -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 84 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 25 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nvx cov2373, sars cov2
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of the Safety and Immunogenicity of Influenza and COVID-19 Combination Vaccine NCT04961541 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of COVID-19 and Influenza Combination Vaccine NCT05519839 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Safety and Immunogenicity of a SARS-CoV-2 rS Nanoparticle Vaccine With/Without Matrix-M Adjuvant NCT04368988 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of COVID-19 Vaccine and Influenza Combination Vaccine NCT06291857 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Monovalent Recombinant COVID19 Vaccine NCT04453852 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.