The COVID-RASi Trial (COVID-19)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-12-30, after 2021-01-27 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acuteto determinedialysissyndromedetermine if
Phrases that lowered it: patientsparticipantstrialinhibitorslaboratory -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 127 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 70 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 127 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- angiotensin, angiotensin ii
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Switch of Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors in Patients With Covid-19 NCT04493359 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
- ACE Inhibitors or ARBs Discontinuation in Context of COVID-19 Pandemic NCT04329195 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Use of Angiotensin-(1-7) in COVID-19 NCT04633772 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Losartan and Spironolactone Treatment for ICU Patients With COVID-19 Suffering From ARDS NCT04643691 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- TXA127 for the Treatment of Severe COVID-19 NCT04401423 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.