A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Durability, and Safety of KSI-301 Compared to Aflibercept in Patients With Macular Edema Due to Retinal Vein Occlusion (RVO)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 37.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: other protocolmmhgmay applycriteria maysecondary
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theparticipantsstudy eyemacularto evaluate
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy, Durability, and Safety of KSI-301 Compared to Aflibercept in Participants With Diabetic Macular Edema (DME) NCT04611152 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Durability, and Safety of KSI-301 Compared to Aflibercept in Participants With Diabetic Macular Edema (DME) NCT04603937 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess the Clinical Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal Aflibercept Injection (IAI;EYLEA®;BAY86-5321) in Patients With Branch Retinal Vein Occlusion (BRVO) NCT01521559 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Intravitreal Ranibizumab 0.5MG, or 1.0mg for RVO With Macular Edema Previously Receiving Bevacizumab NCT01471691 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Study of Comparative Treatments for Retinal Vein Occlusion 2 (SCORE2) NCT01969708 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.