Clinical Study to Evaluate the Effects of Disulfiram in Patients With Moderate COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronic kidneylimitenrollmentkidney disease28
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateefficacy andcell carcinomathe investigatorat screening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• DISulfiram for COvid-19 (DISCO) Trial NCT04485130 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Compare S-217622 With Placebo in Non-Hospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT05305547 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Concentration of SNS812 in Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Patients NCT05941793 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Understand the Effect and Safety of the Study Medicine PF-07817883 in Adults Who Have Symptoms of COVID-19 But Are Not Hospitalized NCT05799495 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of SIM0417 Orally Co-Administered With Ritonavir in Symptomatic Adult Participants With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 NCT05506176 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.