Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AZD9977 and Dapagliflozin in Participants With Heart Failure and Chronic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidney diseaseheartchronic kidneyventricularrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe efficacypatientsaminotransferaseefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1653 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase Ib Study of AZD5462 on Top of Dapagliflozin in Participants With Heart Failure and Moderate Renal Impairment NCT06639087 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• Zibotentan and Dapagliflozin for the Treatment of CKD (ZENITH-CKD Trial) NCT04724837 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Mechanistic Effects of Dapagliflozin Alone or in Combination With Balcinrenone, Compared to Balcinrenone and Placebo on Body Fluid and Electrolyte Handling and Energy Metabolism in Participants Over 50 Years of Age With Chronic Kidney Disease. NCT05884866 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Effects of Empagliflozin on Diuresis and Renal Function in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT04049045 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure. NCT03619213 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.