Antiviral Activity and Safety of Remdesivir in Bangladeshi Patients With Severe Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientspatientcreatininerandomizationtreatment
  Phrases that lowered it: respiratorysafety19participantevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2789 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial of Remdesivir in Adults With Severe COVID-19 NCT04257656 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Remdesivir for Severely Ill Inpatients With COVID-19 (An ACTIV-3b/TESICO Treatment Trial) NCT06729593 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Remdesivir (GS-5734™) Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in an Outpatient Setting NCT04501952 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Antiviral Activity of Remdesivir (GS-5734™) in Participants With Severe Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) NCT04292899 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Remdesivir Efficacy In Management Of COVID-19 Patients NCT04853901 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.