Clinical Efficacy of Heparin and Tocilizumab in Patients With Severe COVID-19 Infection
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-31, after 2020-11-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapyoxygeninfectionhoursevidence
Phrases that lowered it: days before19clinicalefficacygastrointestinal -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 459 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 108070 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 459 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 59 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 108070 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 23058 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- heparin, tocilizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- ANTIcoagulation in Severe COVID-19 Patients NCT04808882 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Preventing COVID-19 Complications With Low- and High-dose Anticoagulation NCT04345848 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- COVID-19: Salvage TOcilizumab as a Rescue Measure NCT04577534 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Trial of Tocilizumab for Treatment of Severe COVID-19: ARCHITECTS NCT04412772 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
- Full Dose Heparin Vs. Prophylactic Or Intermediate Dose Heparin in High Risk COVID-19 Patients NCT04401293 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.