The Evaluation of Nitric Oxide Generating Lozenges on Outcome in Newly Diagnosed COVID-19 Patient of African American and Hispanic Origin

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (118 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 45.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diagnosismmhgdiabetes mellitushalfhours
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsdrugthe studysmokingcoronary
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray (NONS) To Treat and Prevent the Exacerbation of Infection in Individuals With Mild COVID-19 NCT05599919 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray (NONS) as Prevention for Treatment of Individuals at Risk of Exposure to COVID-19 Infection NCT05109611 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials terminated
• Nitric Oxide Releasing Solutions to Prevent and Treat Mild/Moderate COVID-19 Infection NCT04337918 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Clinical Trial of Fluvoxamine for Symptomatic Individuals With COVID-19 Infection NCT04342663 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Inhaled Nitric Oxide for Preventing Progression in COVID-19 NCT04388683 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.