A Triple Combination Antiviral Coronavirus Therapy (TriACT) for COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-02-04, after 2020-12-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 32.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebothe purposeto determinekidneydialysis
Phrases that lowered it: participantscombinationthe efficacyevaluate the28 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 172819 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 24846 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 131 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 32.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 38 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 172819 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 24846 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hydroxychloroquine, nitazoxanide, ribavirin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Nitazoxanide Plus Atazanavir for COVID-19 Study NCT04459286 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- Study of Oral Administration of Ribavirin and Nitazoxamide Versus Placebo in COVID-19 NCT04563208 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Effects of Early Use of Nitazoxanide in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04552483 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- PHRU CoV01 A Trial of Triazavirin (TZV) for the Treatment of Mild-moderate COVID-19 NCT04581915 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
- Evaluating the Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to Prevent Hospitalization or Death in Persons With COVID-19 NCT04358068 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.