A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Immune Response, and Safety of a COVID-19 Vaccine in Adults ≥ 18 Years With a Pediatric Expansion in Adolescents (12 to<18 Years) at Risk for SARS-CoV-2
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-15, after 2020-12-27 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: excludedtherapyenrollment18 yearscancer
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationimmunogenicityhealthyparticipant -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 26 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nvx cov2373, sars cov2
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of COVID-19 Vaccine in Children 6 Months to < 12 Years NCT05468736 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Phase 3 Boosting Study for the SARS-CoV-2 rS Variant Vaccines NCT05372588 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of NVX-CoV2705 NCT07079670 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Strain Change Study for SARS-CoV-2 rS Vaccines NCT06409663 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Study to Compare the Immunogenicity and Safety of 3 Lots of NVX-CoV2373 in Adults NCT05463068 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.