A Study to Investigate the Use of Benralizumab in Patients With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria Who Are Symptomatic Despite the Use of Antihistamines (ARROYO)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stablecareplacebo controlledsymptomaticdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantinvestigatedermatitisallergen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1631 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 144 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3869 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cholinergic Urticaria - Efficacy of Dupilumab NCT03749148 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Use of Benralizumab in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid. NCT04612790 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Dose Escalation Trial Of Safety, Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic And Preliminary Clinical Activity of Briquilimab In Adult Patients With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU) NCT06162728 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of the Use of Benralizumab for Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT04605094 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Abatacept in Subjects With Chronic Urticaria Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to Anti-histamine Therapy NCT00886795 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.