Reducing Adolescent Suicide Risk: Safety, Efficacy, and Connectome Phenotypes of Intravenous Ketamine
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-12-03, after 2022-01-21 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 785 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: depressivescoredepressionleast weeksmini
Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthymedical historyscreeningadolescents -
Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 13 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4732 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 13 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 17 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 785 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 146 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 31392 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4732 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ketamine, midazolam
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ketamine Versus Midazolam for Recurrence of Suicidality in Adolescents NCT04592809 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Ketamine Infusion for Rapid Reduction of Suicidality in Pediatrics NCT04955470 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- Ketamine in Adolescents With Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT02078817 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Initiating Ketamine in Acutely Suicidal Patients in the Emergency Department NCT04260607 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
- Ketamine for Depression and Suicide Risk NCT02094898 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.