A Study of the Safety, Efficacy, and Biomarker Response of BMS-986165 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: other protocolprotocol definedevidencedefined inclusionsevere
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andsafetyparticipantsopen labelperiod
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 736 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 82 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Deucravacitinib in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT03934216 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Single Ascending Dose and Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Participants and Proof of Mechanism Study in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis NCT02864264 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• Induction and Maintenance Study of BMS-936557 Patients With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT01294410 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03653026 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Andecaliximab (GS-5745) in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02520284 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.